Top Analyst: Bitcoin is 65% unlikely to crash

Bitcoin’s interrupted rally has increased the likelihood of a major pullback, according to independent analyst Vince Prince.

The TradingView.com author writes that there is a 35 percent chance that Bitcoin price will fall soon. He cites a textbook technical indicator that predicts declining reversal patterns.

The pattern known as „head and shoulder“ appears during an asset’s uptrend. Traders acknowledge it when they see three highs forming on a support-like baseline.

The middle peak is higher than the other two, so that it looks like a head hanging over two shoulders on each side – hence „Head and Shoulder“

The H&S patterns typically end in a breakout below the baseline, with a downward target well below the structure’s maximum elevation. Prince comments that Bitcoin forms a similar technical setup, with the left shoulder and head fully confirmed and the right shoulder partially fixed.

„Bitcoin is already being traded in overbought zones,“ he adds. “That doesn’t mean that it can move higher and make new highs. However, the downward prospect should by no means be underestimated. Bitcoin moves in zones in which a rapid reversal and change of direction can be established more easily. “

If the H&S pattern is valid, Bitcoin risks being about $ 1,600 below its baseline (the level between the high and the support). The yellow area in the graph above shows the ideal target area for the H&S outbreak.

What risks Bitcoin is exposed to

Prince’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin received involuntary support from the cryptocurrency futures market. According to Glassnode, the average „funding rate“ across all Bitcoin exchanges has risen to levels suggesting that traders may have been over-leveraged through open-ended contracts.

Measured every eight hours, the refinancing rate shows the cost of holding a bullish contract, that is, a long position. A positive value indicates that bulls are paying bears.

This increases the value of the perpetual contract via the Bitcoin spot rate. Hence, a very high refinancing rate signals that leverage is unduly skewed in favor of the bulls. It is an overbought condition.

An event of a pullback in the cash market can lead to massive long liquidations, which can lead to more price declines and higher volatility.

The optimistic perspective

However, Prince also believes in a limited corrective downtrend. He writes that Bitcoin could find support at the H&S neckline in order to rise higher again – and that could invalidate the entire trend reversal theory as a whole.

Vince’s conclusion:

„Since Bitcoin still has solid supports [near] the 65 EMA and the blue horizontal support, the bullish breakout has a greater 65% probability“

Its upward outlook sees Bitcoin at over $ 19,000.

Bitcoin investor types: hodlers, traders and criminals

The crypto ecosystem is diverse and combines very different types of investors. A look at cryptocurrencies through the psychological lens.

The various buyers of Bitcoin and Co.

There are roughly four types of people who buy cryptocurrency. The first is the genus Hodler. These are people who have a deep understanding of the underlying blockchain technology and who remain loyal to their coins forever. Hodler are there for the long term – be it to the moon or to the bottom of the valley.

The second type of people who buy cryptocurrencies are retail investors. These are the people who tend to be more trending and stumble into the crypto market with short term investment strategies. When cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Pro platform rise, they quickly jump on the bandwagon. But if the hoped-for profits fail to materialize and the market consolidates, they exit just as quickly and liquidate their assets.

The third type of people who buy cryptocurrency are institutional investors. These can be hedge funds, investment firms and banks, or public figures such as Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey. The reason Dorsey is included on this list is that he is unlikely to personally call Bitcoin exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and buy cryptocurrency through them. He is much more likely to buy through an OTC counter with an intermediary such as a financial advisor. These people get on and off the train according to their needs and budget.

The fourth type of people who buy cryptocurrency are criminals. Unfortunately, in the eyes of many people, cryptocurrency, and especially Bitcoin, are linked to illegal activity. While criminals use Bitcoin for their activities (especially hackers), they tend to turn to privacy coins like Monero , which better protect their privacy. They also make up an ever smaller percentage of crypto users as more and more people hold digital currencies overall.

The psychology of the crypto trader

The crypto market never sleeps and that has a similar impact on people who actively trade cryptocurrency. Investors can only protect themselves from the highly volatile price events with stop-loss and other useful tools that can be found on most crypto exchange platforms.

Then comes the problem of crypto custody. While buying, trading, and storing cryptocurrency is easier than ever, it is still far from being a process that can be quickly learned by an inexperienced person. Even for experienced cryptocurrency users, the notion that a single mistake in a wallet address could result in the loss of the coins being held can be very scary.

The future of cryptocurrency en

People who own cryptocurrency are all waiting for the day when crypto will finally become a common concept. The reality is that this will not happen until a healthy balance between regulation and freedom has been struck, either internally within the cryptocurrency community or with government support. In addition, cryptocurrencies must be better explained and marketed for outside interested parties.

Fortunately, these issues are gradually resolved over time. How quickly these processes take place is ultimately up to us. Trench warfare between supporters of different projects and coins stand in the way of the great goal of global crypto adaptation. Rather, the community should network and jointly announce the happy crypto message to the world.

Italian man arrested for using airport systems for ETH mining

You can’t just mine cryptomorphs for profit using other people’s systems without them approving it

An Italian airport employee supposedly used the computer systems at his workplace to mine Ethereum ( ETH ).

An employee at an airport located in the Italian city of Lamezia Terme, the employee allegedly planted mining malware in the airport’s computer systems, a press release from the Italian media Rai News said today.

The official said he had installed several mining platforms on site, taking advantage of the airport’s back-end systems in the process. The authorities ended up catching the culprit via a security camera.

The technical services provided by Sacal Global Solutions oversee the technical structure of airports in the Italian region of Calabria. The airport employee, 41, is believed to have accessed Sacal’s systems to install mining malware. The official’s actions have put the airport’s back-end systems at risk, the statement added.

„The researchers, with the collaboration of airport authorities, analysed the computer network partitions within the hub, discovering the presence, in two separate technical rooms, of a real ‚mining farm‘ […] connected to the external Internet through systems dedicated to managing airport services and powered by the airport’s electricity supply,“ reported Rai News, adding:

„The investigations, coordinated by the Lamezia Terme Public Prosecutor’s Office, were carried out with technical activities that made it possible to examine the IP addresses associated with the machines installed, to identify the site of the ‚Ethermine‘ pool (used for ‚mining‘ the cryptomeda Ethereum) and to monitor the site. „

Cryptomime mining malware is not an unusual threat in the industry. Near the peak of the last encryption market in January 2018, this malware is believed to have affected 55% of the world’s businesses.